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Economic Stagnant under Starmer’s Leadership
The ONS on Monday revised down its estimate for UK third-quarter GDP growth to 0.0% from the previously reported 0.1%, showing that Britain’s economy did not grow at all during the first three months of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government. This underlines a wider economic slowdown that has overshadowed the early days of his premiership.
(UK’s Q3 GDP QoQ, Source: Office for National Statistics)
The ONS also reduced its estimate for second-quarter growth to 0.4% from 0.5%. Since entering office at the beginning of July, Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have sounded the alarm on the economy’s fragility. An Oct. 30 budget piled increases on business, despite warnings from employers. Economists say that such caution might have become self-reinforcing and has squeezed further momentum from the economy. Wednesday’s figures hinted at flat growth in the second half of this year.
The Bank of England last week forecast no growth in the final quarter but left rates unchanged as inflationary pressures continued. The revision to GDP partly reflected weaker export demand, although domestic consumer spending and business investment held up. Although the economy dodged a technical recession, or two quarters of contraction, the data raises the chances of the BoE cutting rates in early 2025.
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