Ultima Markets

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the XAUUSD for SEP 5, 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• Expectation of interest rate cut: There is currently a divergence in the market regarding whether the first interest rate cut in September will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. This almost entirely depends on the results of Friday’s employment report. If a certain threshold is reached in unemployment rate and layoffs, then 50 basis points can be considered. 

• US labor force: The US recorded 7.673 million job vacancies in July, lower than the expected 8.1 million and the lowest level since January 2021, with the previous value revised down to 7.91 million. The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has risen to 44%, and the yield curves of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds have turned positive for the second time this year. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

(Gold Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a bearish signal in the overbought area, and the indicator in the overbought area forms a top divergence pattern with the gold price. This implies that the previous upward trend will be curbed. But currently, all indicators are close to the 50th line, and it will be clear whether the adjustment trend will end in the next two days. 

• Key support price: Currently, the red 33 day moving average is about to support further decline in gold prices. For two consecutive trading days, gold prices have shown a pin bar structure, which is a strong rebound signal. However, if the gold price falls below such a strong support level, it will experience a significant downward trend. 

H1 Chart Insights 

(Gold H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sends a bearish signal below the overbought area, indicating that the exchange rate will mainly experience a downward adjustment trend during the Asian session. Investors should pay attention to the bullish signal that the indicator has been issued once again below the 50-level line. 

• Resistance price: The exchange rate accelerated its breakthrough through the short-term moving average group yesterday and is currently blocked by the green 200 cycle moving average. If gold breaks through the resistance of the green moving average, the probability of gold price reversal will increase. 

Pivot Indicator 

(Gold M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.3530, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 2482, first target 2507, second target 2513; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 2482, first target 2473, second target 2466. 

Conclusion 

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Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.