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Weaker Inflation Might Trigger Rate Cut from the SNB
TOPICSTags: CPI, Inflation, Rate Cut, SNB, Swiss franc
Inflation Falls Short of Expectations
On Tuesday, data from the Federal Statistics Office revealed that Swiss annual inflation edged up to 0.7% in November from 0.6% in October, falling short of the forecasted 0.8%. Meanwhile, consumer prices dipped by 0.1% compared to the previous month, aligning with expectations.
(Switzerland CPI y/y, Source: Investing.com)
In 2024, the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which aims to maintain inflation between 0% and 2%, has implemented three 25-basis-point rate cuts, bringing its benchmark rate to the current level of 1%. Market expectations now suggest a 71% probability of a 50-basis-point cut and a 29% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction at the SNB’s upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 12. Earlier market sentiment had favoured a smaller 25-basis-point cut.
(Swiss National Bank’s Policy Rate, Source: Forex Factory)
Looking ahead, two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts are anticipated in March and June 2025, potentially lowering the benchmark rate to 0%. Beyond this, the possibility of reintroducing negative interest rates cannot be ruled out, as the SNB has indicated it remains open to such measures.
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