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The S&P Global UK Composite PMI for July 2024 was adjusted upwards to 52.8 from the initial 52.7 estimate, indicating faster economic expansion compared to June’s 52.3. UK private sector growth was fueled by increased demand, particularly in exports, reaching levels unseen since April 2023. Employment growth hit a 13-month high, while backlogs of work decreased. Input costs rose sharply, marking the steepest increase in three months, though output charges grew at a slower pace.  

In July 2024, the United Kingdom’s retail sales increased by 0.3% on a like-for-like basis compared to the previous year, aligning with market predictions. The growth marked a turnaround from June’s 0.5% decline. The retail sector’s improvement coincided with the Bank of England initiating interest rate cuts, fostering anticipation of more robust underlying spending growth for the latter half of the year. 

(UK Composite PMI，S&P Global) 

Sterling dropped to $1.273, nearing a one-month low, as markets priced in swifter interest rate reductions from the Bank of England. Concurrently, British government bond yields hit fresh multi-month lows, influenced by growing concerns about a potential US economic downturn. Investors now anticipate two quarter-point rate cuts from the BoE by December. 

(GBPUSD Monthly Chart) 

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