Ultima Markets

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EURUSD for Sept 3, 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• U.S. economic data: The United States will release the August ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indexes on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market expected the August ISM manufacturing PMI to be 47.5, and the previous value was 46.8. At a time when economic growth has become the only focus of the market, these data are likely to affect market sentiment. 

• Fed rate cut: According to CME’s “Fed Watch” tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 69%, and the probability of a 50-basis point cut is 31%. There are many U.S. economic data this week. If a series of data clearly shows that the Fed needs to cut interest rates to maintain economic growth, the probability of a 50-basis point cut will increase. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

(EUR/USD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a bearish signal in the overbought area, and at the same time forms a top divergence with the exchange rate trend. Subsequently, the euro continued to fall against the dollar, and the current fast line has touched the 50 median line, which suggests that if the previous decline is an adjustment and correction trend, the exchange rate has a probability of reversing upward in the near future. 

• MA support: The exchange rate rebounded yesterday, but the final closing price did not break through the closing price of last Friday. Similar structures cannot clearly indicate that the downward adjustment has ended. Therefore, if the exchange rate cannot further rebound and break through the high point of last Friday today, the euro will continue to fall. The first target is the previous pin bar high point, and the price is also near the upward channel and the red 33-day MA. 

1-hour Chart Analysis 

(EUR/USD H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator issued a short signal before it was in the overbought area, suggesting that the short force has the upper hand in the short term during the Asian session, but whether the exchange rate rebound is over still needs to be clarified. 

• Elliott wave: The internal structure of yesterday’s upward trend is a clear 5-wave structure. Therefore, after the exchange rate adjusted in the Asian session today, there is at least one driving wave structure, which drives the euro to appreciate against the US dollar. 

• Rebound target price: If the exchange rate is still in the rebound stage, the extreme rebound target is near the Fibonacci proportional extension height of 1.10963, and near the green 200-period moving average. 

Pivot Indicator 

(EUR/USD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.1053, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.1053, first target 1.1099, second target 1.1113; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.1053, first target 1.1031, second target 1.1017. 

Conclusion 

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Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.