In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBPUSD for AUG 2 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• NFP is the key to rate cut: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but Powell’s dovish words indicate that the door to rate cuts in September is open. Today’s non-farm payroll data will be crucial in determining the health of the US economy. If the job market remains weak, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50BP in September will soar. 

• Bank of England rate cut: After the overnight Fed meeting, the Bank of England announced its first rate cut in more than four years on Thursday, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 5%. The decision to cut interest rates before the Fed has led to a depreciation trend in the short term for the pound. However, as the Fed’s rate cut approaches, the pound may reverse and appreciate in the future. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sent a short signal in mid-July and then fell rapidly. Yesterday’s fast line was close to the oversold area, so beware that the indicator is about to send a long signal in the oversold area, indicating a potential reversal today. 

• Friday market trend: Usually, there is a probability of a rebound on Friday for a whole week of unilateral trend. The rapid decline of the pound yesterday touched the upward trend line, which also suggests that the exchange rate may be blocked and rebound today. Even if it falls below the upward trend line, we need to be alert to the possibility of a false breakout. 

H1 Chart Insights 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator repeatedly enters the oversold area, suggesting that the current short-selling force is strong. Even so, neither the exchange rate nor the indicator has shown a bottom divergence, so the exchange rate still has the probability of continuing to fall. 

• Reversal price: The black trend line on the chart is the upward trend line of the daily cycle chart. Observe the trend of the exchange rate at this support price in the 1-hour cycle to see if there is a reversal pattern. It is worth noting that 1.27485 above is the key conversion area. Even if it breaks above this price, there are two key fair value gaps. 

Pivot Indicator 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.2790, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.2790, first target 1.2825, second target 1.2865; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.2790, first target 1.2690, second target 1.2655. 

Conclusion 

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets. 

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. 

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets. 

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Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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