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Canadian Dollar Strengthen on Stronger CPI Data
TOPICSTags: Canadian Dollar, CPI, GPD, Inflation, USDCAD
Bank of Canada Less Likely to Deliver Another 50bps Cut
On Tuesday, Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.0% in October from 1.6% in September, exceeding economists’ forecast of 1.9%, as gas prices declined at a slower pace than in the previous month. This led to a strengthening of the Canadian dollar, causing USDCAD to drop 0.42% and close at 1.3956.
(Canada CPI y/y Chart, Source: Investing.com)
(USDCAD Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
The hotter-than-expected inflation report has somewhat reduced the likelihood of a larger rate cut in December, though key developments remain ahead. The Bank of Canada previously lowered rates by 50 basis points in October, marking the first cut of this size in 15 years outside of the pandemic era.
As a result, money markets now see a 23% chance of the BoC cutting interest rates by half a percentage point at its next policy meeting on Dec. 12, down from 38% before the inflation data. Additionally, upcoming third-quarter GDP data on Nov. 29 and the November employment report on Dec. 6 are expected to further shape market expectations for BoC easing.
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